Prospects of cooling inflation powered a rally in stock prices last week despite growing recession concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 6.45%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 7.49% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged 0.78% higher.1,2,3

Stocks Bounce

Declining energy and food prices and falling bond yields signaled a potentially improving inflation outlook, buoying investor sentiment. The rally in stocks was most powerful on the first and final trading days of a holiday-shortened week. Stocks turned a bit choppy mid-week as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate appearance but resumed their momentum on Thursday and rallied Friday as rate-hike expectations eased.

Though the weekly gain was a welcome respite from the market’s downward trend, declining bond yields and falling food and energy prices can also be interpreted as signs of slowing economic growth, which may represent a headwind for corporate earnings in the months ahead.

Powell Testifies

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told members of the Senate Finance Committee that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation and moving quickly to do so. He conceded that a recession could result from the Fed’s inflation-fighting efforts and acknowledged that some of the forces driving inflation (e.g., supply chain, war) are out of the Fed’s control.⁴

Perhaps the most exciting part of his testimony was what he didn’t say, which was a definitive statement on future hikes. Instead, Powell told lawmakers that he “anticipate[s] that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.” Before his testimony, the Fed published a new research paper that found a greater than 50% chance of recession in the next four quarters.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Durable Goods Orders.

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate for Q1).

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

^{Source: Econoday, June 24, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: General Mills, Inc. (GIS).

Thursday: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA).

^{Source: Zacks, June 24, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“You can’t win every week.” 

– Caryl Churchill

Get Educated on Education Credits

Two education credits are available to American taxpayers: the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) and the Lifetime Learning Credit (LLC). The IRS has lots of information about these two credits on their site, but here are some helpful highlights:

• The AOTC is allowed for expenses for course-related books, supplies, and equipment not necessarily paid to the educational institution but needed for attendance.
• There is a four-year limit on claiming the AOTC but no limit on the number of years you can claim the LLC.
• To claim either credit, use Form 8863.
• The AOTC is worth up to $2,500.
• To claim the full credit, your modified adjusted gross income must be $80,000 or less.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Healthy Roadtrip Snacks

Summer is the season for road trips! Whether taking a short drive from your house or heading off on a cross-country adventure, many families are packing up the car for some time away.

One of the best parts about road trip are the snacks, but they aren’t always the healthiest. Luckily, there are many easy snacks you can prepare for your trip. Skip the chips at the gas station and snack on these healthy road trip snacks instead:

• Apples and peanut butter
• Celery and peanut butter
• Carrots and hummus
• Homemade trail mix with nuts and dried fruit
• Protein and granola bars
• Nuts and seeds
• Dried fruit and veggie chips

Tip adapted from Healthline⁷

In a drawer are six pairs of red socks, four pairs of white socks and five pairs of blue socks. In total darkness, how many socks would you have to grab to be certain you had a matching pair? 

Last week’s riddle:  It has 18 legs, is uniformed, walks and runs on grass and artificial turf, and catches flies. What is it? Riddle answer: A baseball team.

Four Peaks, Gila County, Arizona

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022}

^{6. IRS.gov, March 20, 2020} 

^{7. healthline.com, February 26, 2022}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.}

Recession fears grew last week following weak earnings reports from major retailers, sending stocks lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.90%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 3.05%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3.82% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.84%.^1,2,3

Trending Lower

Stock prices remained in a downtrend, capped by a sell-off on Wednesday following a succession of disappointing earnings reports from several major retailers. Despite solid April retail sales and industrial production data, weak economic numbers from China and shrinking profit margins at U.S. retailers fanned recession fears throughout the week.

Rising yields, which have been an overhang to the markets in recent weeks, turned lower as investors appeared to move cash to bonds from stocks. But lower yields did not help stock prices, which closed out the week with a volatile trading session.

Cloudy Picture with Retailers

Investors received a mixed message from the retail sector. April’s retail sales increased 0.9% from March, signifying that consumer spending remained strong. But it was difficult to determine from the retail sales report whether the increase was a function of higher retail prices or a resilient consumer.⁴

It was also a big week for earnings reports from some of the nation’s largest retailers. Results were disappointing as retailers struggled with supply chain issues, higher costs, and misaligned product mix. Some retailers indicated a drop in the number of transactions, suggesting that shoppers reduce purchases due to higher prices on essential items.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash. New Home Sales.

Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Jobless Claims. 

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, May 20, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Zoom Video Communications (ZM).

Tuesday: Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Intuit, Inc. (INTU).

Wednesday: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW).

Thursday: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Dollar General Corporation (DG), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW).

^{Source: Zacks, May 20, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“It takes a very long time to become young.” 

– Pablo Picasso

Don’t Forget to Check Your Withholding

When was the last time you checked your tax withholding? Having the correct amount of tax withheld from your wages is an essential part of properly managing your taxes. The amount you withhold depends on your income, the number of children you claim on your return, and more.

The IRS has a helpful tool on their site called their Tax Withholding Estimator that can help you know if you have too much or too little tax withheld from your wages. Before using the tool, make sure you have all your paperwork handy, including your W2, 1099, 1095-A, and 1099-NEC, and any other forms you need to determine how much of your income is taxable.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁵

What is Foam Rolling?

Exercise is super important for our overall health, but so is recovery. Foam rollers are a popular recovery tool because they can help release tension in tight, tired muscles.

Foam rollers are large cylinders made from high-density foam. They come in different sizes and firmness levels and can be used to massage both large and smaller muscle groups. Depending on your needs, you can use the foam roller before or after a workout.

You can do countless foam rolling exercises for sore muscles, including rolling out your hamstrings, quads, upper back, lower back, IT band, triceps, forearm, and more.

Tip adapted from WebMD⁶

Two trains are crossing America from coast to coast, traveling over 3,000 miles of track. The Gentle Zephyr is going west at 70mph; the Western Wind is headed east at 80mph. So which train will be closer to the east coast when they roll by each other in Kansas?

Last week’s riddle: Name two words in the English language that have the letter I twice in the middle of the word. Riddle answer: Skiing, taxiing.

Lighthouse of Westerhever, Westerhever, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2022}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2022}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2022}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2022}

^{5. IRS.gov, January 20, 2021}  

^{6. webmd.com, August 17, 2021}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2022 FMG Suite}